Papal Succession 2025: The Next Pope

Who Will Lead the Catholic Church?

Pope Francis: A Legacy of Reform

Pope Francis, the first Jesuit and Latin American pontiff, passed away on April 21, 2025, at the age of 88. His death marks the end of a 12-year papacy characterized by advocacy for simplicity, social justice, and interfaith dialogue. As the Catholic Church mourns his loss, attention turns to the future and the question on everyone's mind: Who will be the next Pope?

This website provides analysis of the papal succession process, profiles of the leading candidates, and predictions about who is most likely to emerge as the next leader of the world's 1.4 billion Catholics.

The Papal Conclave: How a Pope is Elected

1

Cardinals Gather

The 138 eligible cardinal electors (those under age 80) will gather in Rome within 15-20 days of Pope Francis's death.

2

Conclave Begins

Cardinals are sequestered in the Sistine Chapel, where they will remain until a new Pope is elected.

3

Secret Ballots

Voting takes place by secret ballot, with up to four rounds per day. A two-thirds majority (92 votes) is required for election.

4

White Smoke

When a Pope is elected, white smoke rises from the Sistine Chapel chimney, signaling to the world that a new pontiff has been chosen.

5

Habemus Papam

The senior cardinal announces "Habemus Papam" ("We have a Pope") and introduces the new pontiff by his chosen papal name.

Leading Candidates

The next Pope will be chosen from among the College of Cardinals. Here are the leading candidates who could succeed Pope Francis:

Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle

Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle

Prefect of the Dicastery for Evangelization

Country

Philippines

Age

Age: 67

Odds

Betting Odds: 3:1

Progressive View Profile
Cardinal Pietro Parolin

Cardinal Pietro Parolin

Vatican Secretary of State

Country

Italy

Age

Age: 70

Odds

Betting Odds: 4:1

Moderate View Profile
Cardinal Matteo Zuppi

Cardinal Matteo Zuppi

Archbishop of Bologna

Country

Italy

Age

Age: 69

Odds

Betting Odds: 8:1

Progressive View Profile
Cardinal Peter Turkson

Cardinal Peter Turkson

Former Prefect, Dicastery for Promoting Integral Human Development

Country

Ghana

Age

Age: 76

Odds

Betting Odds: 5:1

Moderate-Progressive View Profile
Cardinal Peter Erdő

Cardinal Peter Erdő

Archbishop of Budapest

Country

Hungary

Age

Age: 72

Odds

Betting Odds: 7:1

Conservative View Profile
Cardinal Robert Sarah

Cardinal Robert Sarah

Former Prefect, Congregation for Divine Worship

Country

Guinea

Age

Age: 79

Odds

Betting Odds: 10:1

Conservative View Profile

Our Prediction

Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle 40%
Cardinal Pietro Parolin 25%
Cardinal Matteo Zuppi 15%
Cardinal Peter Turkson 10%
Cardinal Peter Erdő 5%
Cardinal Robert Sarah 5%

Based on our analysis of the current Church climate, voting dynamics, and candidate profiles, Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle emerges as the most likely successor to Pope Francis with a 40% probability.

The most significant factor influencing this prediction is that Pope Francis appointed approximately 80% of the current cardinal electors, suggesting a strong likelihood of continuity with his progressive vision.

However, papal elections are notoriously unpredictable. The Italian proverb "He who enters the conclave as pope leaves as a cardinal" highlights this unpredictability.

Read Full Analysis

Key Factors Influencing the Selection

Geographical Representation

With Catholicism growing rapidly in the Global South (Africa, Asia, and Latin America), there is increasing pressure to select a non-European Pope who can represent the changing demographics of the Church.

Theological Direction

The conclave will need to decide whether to continue Francis's more progressive approach or pivot back toward theological conservatism. This fundamental question may be the most significant factor in determining the next Pope.

Francis's Appointments

Pope Francis appointed approximately 80% of the current cardinal electors, significantly shaping the composition of the College of Cardinals. This suggests a higher likelihood of selecting a candidate who will continue his progressive vision.

Handling of Abuse Cases

The Church's response to sexual abuse scandals remains a critical issue. Cardinals will likely prioritize a candidate with a strong record on transparency and accountability in addressing these cases.